Parlay Card

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The real games start this weekend. My NFL parlay picks produced two big winners during the regular season, and there were several other close calls (or bad beats).

The goal is to profit anytime you set forth in NFL betting, and nothing changes with the 2021 NFL playoffs arriving on Saturday.

May 27, 2019 Whether you are playing a point spread parlay on football Sunday, or a moneyline parlay on Tuesday's baseball card, the answer to this question remains the same; 'it depends'. It all depends on. A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers for a high payout. A 2 team parlay might pay 13/5, a three team parlay might pay 6/1, a four team parlay might pay 10/1, and so forth with the payouts getting higher with more teams or totals selected. For a single bet, 2 to 8 teams or totals can be selected.

In fact, the only difference is the amount of NFL games you can bet on. Things condense quite a bit, but the six games during the first round are more than you’re accustomed to.

I’ll take what I can get, and for as long as it makes sense, I’ll keep handing out parlay picks for the 2021 NFL playoffs. If you’re looking to string together some bets to increase your earning potential, consider my favorite parlay picks for the 2021 Wild Card round.

Washington Football Team – Fewest Points Scored (+250)

There are some 2021 Wild Card upset picks to consider this week, but Washington probably won’t be one of them.

The Washington Football Team could barely get past an Eagles team that had no interest in winning. Their 25th-ranked scoring offense figures to have trouble keeping up with the Buccaneers, too, while there is word a less than 100% Alex Smith might not even be able to play the whole game.

Ron Rivera says Washington has to consider rotating QBs Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke against Tampa. “It’s something we seriously have to look at”

— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) January 5, 2021

Washington’s defense could try to limit Tom Brady and keep this game close, but that’s their best-case scenario. I don’t see them putting up many points in this spot, while a talented Bucs defense could be on a mission to send a message in this game.

This is a risky one with 11 other teams potentially vying for the “top spot,” but in reality, the only other threats figure to be the Rams and Bears. Both have more offensive potential, so I love Washington to score the fewest points in the Wild Card round.

This is another bet where logic points to the favorite, and there just aren’t that many other options you would feel good about.

Henry is the mother of all battering rams, he has a good history of rushing success in this exact matchup, and he’s coming in hot after putting up 250 rushing yards last week.

Heck, some people even think he’s the league MVP.

2,000 Rush Yards, 15 TD (single season, NFL history):
Davis, 1998: 2,008 yds, 21 TD
Henry, 2020: 2,027 yds, 17 TD
'Derrick Henry is the MVP. And if he's not it's time for us to change the name of this award to the QB award. This is the hardest thing you can do.' — @BMarshallpic.twitter.com/3ewYWgf4Y6

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) January 4, 2021

Recent bias might lead some to consider Jonathan Taylor here, while guys like J.K. Dobbins and Nick Chubb could be in the mix. But is it likely the Ravens shut Henry down? No.

Is it reasonable to think he won’t be the top rusher in the first round of the playoffs? Not really.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) -115

The Buffalo Bills are being hyped up as the potential kryptonite for the Kansas City Chiefs. Maybe so, but they have to get past a pretty good Colts team first.

Indianapolis benefits from the league’s playoff expansion, and if there wasn’t a 7th team in, they would be at home at 11-5 right now.

The Colts know they’re lucky to be here, but they also have a talented running back, a veteran quarterback, and a pretty good defense. You don’t think this totally worthy and viable playoff threat will take issue with being a full touchdown underdog?

I know, Philip Rivers has a rough history in the playoffs. However, it’s not just about him. Indy has the coaching, balance, and defensive bite to be a real problem for Buffalo.

They’re among my safest 2021 Wild Card bets, and you can keep them as part of your Wild Card NFL parlay.

This game should be ugly, folks. That’s my belief even if Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp are back in time for this one, but if not, the Rams will really be struggling on offense.

Both teams have a very good defense, both teams play a slower brand of football, and their previous two meetings this year fell below this total.

This is a really low game total, and it wouldn’t take much to top it. However, the Rams don’t have a very threatening offense right now, both defenses are nasty, and neither offense is very explosive these days.

Would you be shocked to learn that the Over was 4-12 for the Rams and 7-9 for the Seahawks in 2020? Yeah, me neither. Bet the Under and look away when this one plays.

It’s time for some redemption. Yes, I think this game is wild, and no, I don’t think the Ravens stifle Derrick Henry.

But the Ravens are going to find a way to win this game.

Tennessee is 2-0 in their last two meetings with Baltimore, but there is revenge to be had after the Titans derailed a majestic 14-2 campaign a year ago. That and the last meeting went into overtime.

Oh, and this Titans defense is absolute garbage.

Tennessee’s offense is awesome, and Baltimore will have a heck of a time trying to stop it, but I think the Ravens keep pace and hold on for a big win. Lamar Jackson is on fire these days, and the Ravens (five straight wins) are one of the hottest teams in football.

Baltimore has the coaching and defensive edge here. With a dynamic offense capable of matching wits with Tennessee, I think that edge nudges the Ravens into round two.

As if betting on Washington to score the fewest points – or any of these bets – weren’t dicey enough, I’ll up the ante and say the Browns are going to upset the Steelers.

William Hill 1/2 Point Parlay Card

They were in my 2021 Wild Card NFL upset picks before news broke about their COVID-19 situation, and I’m not changing my stance.

The NFL gods are trying to get in the way of Cleveland’s amazing season, of course, and a recent run-in with COVID-19 implications will get everyone off of the Browns.

Browns COVID outbreak continues: HC Kevin Stefanski, two other coaches and two players have COVID issues, sources tell ESPN. Browns are closing their facility.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 5, 2021

To be fair, the Browns will be without their head coach and arguably their best offensive lineman. Those are not small absences.

But Cleveland has its best team in probably two decades. They can run the football on anyone, Myles Garrett spearheads a better than advertised defense, and Baker Mayfield can do major damage when he has time.

More than betting on the Browns, however, I’m just not betting on the Steelers.

Pittsburgh was looking pretty fraudulent already during their 11-0 run to start the year, but since then, they’ve won exactly one game. And even that required a collapse by the Colts!

I don’t trust the Steelers at all. They’re not as good as their record suggests, their once stellar defense is down key bodies, and Ben Roethlisberger has shown his age down the stretch.

Top 2021 Wild Card NFL Parlay Bet

• Washington Football Team – Fewest Points Scored (+250)
• Most Rushing Yards – Derrick Henry (-175)
• Indianapolis Colts (+7) -115
• Rams vs. Seahawks Under 42.5 (-110)
• Baltimore Ravens to Win (-165)
• Cleveland Browns to Win (+220)

Sometimes you get a feeling about games, and/or the prices look too nice. And when it’s there for the taking, you just need to go for it.

Go for it, I shall.

The 2021 NFL Wild Card round could be a lot of fun, as this ambitious set of NFL parlay picks attempts to bring back a whopping $33,660.37 for every $100 wagered at Bovada.

Is it risky? Well, yeah.

Honestly, just betting on the Browns to win or taking Washington to score the fewest points is snatching up plenty of value. And understandably so, this is the part where I remind you that you can go against these parlay picks, cut them down to a more comfortable size, or just bet on them individually.

That said, this is an awesome parlay, full of Wild Card NFL bets I happen to love. Whatever combination you go with is up to you, but if you roll with the whole lot at Bovada, the upside is insane.

If you want to be on the NFL this week, make sure you shop around. Hit up the best NFL betting sites before placing any bets.

Before you can learn how to make parlay cards, you need to have a good understanding of what a parlay is and how it works. I cover parlay bets, especially football parlays, in detail in the beginning of this post.

I offer advice about how to actually make the parlay cards later in this post, too.

(By the way, parlays are also often called accumulator or combination bets, but parlay is the most common term used in American sports betting.)

What Is a Parlay Card and How Do Parlay Bets Work?

A parlay bet is a single bet on multiple outcomes. It’s basically a combination of bets, and the parlay only wins if all the outcomes win. Those bets are listed on a parlay card.

Having multiple bets in play at one time provides you with a bigger payout, but you also have a smaller probability of winning.

I like to think of things in terms of casino bets, so I think of a parlay as being like a bet that you’ll win black twice in a row on the roulette table. If you win, you might get paid off at 3 to 1 instead of the usual even money action. But your probability of winning 2 bets in a row is obviously much lower.

But parlays are usually thought of in terms of sports. And most sports parlays consist of 2 to 10 different bets on the same card.

For example, you might choose 4 football teams to win their games this Sunday:

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. New Orleans Saints
3. New England Patriots
4. Tennessee Titans

You COULD just place a single bet on each of those games, and that would be fun.

But if you place a bet on all 4 of them on a parlay, you’ll win more than you would even if you won the 4 individual bets.

And you only win the parlay bet if you’re right about all 4 teams. If even one team on your parlay loses, you’ve lost the bet.

You could also face a situation where one of the games tie. That’s called a “push.” If that happens, you don’t lose your parlay, but you’re only paid off as if you’d placed a smaller parlay—it’s as if that game didn’t exist on your card.

In the example above, where you’re betting on 4 games at the same time, if one of the games resulted in a tie, you’d get paid off as if you’d bet on a 3-game parlay. It’s a smaller payoff, but that’s better than a loss.

Parlay Odds, Probability, and Payouts

It should go without saying that the more games on the parlay card, the lower your odds of winning are. That’s because the odds of multiple things happening get multiplied by each other.

Let’s say that each of the teams on your 4-game parlay above have a 50% probability of winning. The probability that all 4 of them will win is:

50% X 50% X 50% X 50%, or 6.25%. That’s the same thing as 16 to 1 odds.

A 4-team parlay bet usually pays off at 13 to 1. If you bet $100 on that parlay and won, you’d win $1300.

The payouts are correspondingly higher, too.

Notice the discrepancy between the odds on the payout and the odds of winning. That difference is the vigorish, or “vig,” which is where the sports book makes its money.

Here’s how that amounts to a profit for the book:

• Take 17 parlays with those odds. The book collects $100 X 17 bets, or $1700.
• Since the odds are 16 to 1, they only expect to pay off a player once, for $1300.
• The other $400 is profit. Divide that $400 by 17 bets, and the book makes an average profit of $23.52.

That’s not a bad profit margin.

In most gambling businesses, the company makes its money by offering payout odds that are lower than the odds of winning. If you think of the odds as being similar to a fraction, you’ll understand why 1 in 16 is smaller than 1 in 13, even though 13 is smaller than 16. (It’s the same thing as saying 1/14 or 1/17.)

A 10-team parlay can make for a huge payout, by the way. A payout of 825 to 1 wouldn’t be unusual for such a bet, but the probability of winning that bet are bigger than that—1023 to 1.

Bet $100 on a 10-parlay, and you’re looking at winnings of $82,500.
This is a profitable parlay for the sportsbook, too, if you look at it statistically:

The book makes a smaller percentage profit, but on that kind of action, they can afford a smaller percentage profit.

If you think of it in terms of “the house edge,” like you would a casino game, you’re talking about a house edge that’s still 19.43%.

If you’re good at picking winners, you could theoretically make a profitable bet on a parlay. If, for example, you’re right 55% of the time instead of 50% of the time, your probability of winning the 4-game parlay skyrockets:

55% X 55% X 55% X 55% is 9.15%, or about 11 to 1.

With a 13 to 1 payout, it’s easy to see how a bettor comes out ahead, statistically.

You place 12 bets, and you win 1 of them. You have $1200 invested, but on the one bet you win, you win $1300. That’s a profit of $100 over 12 bets, or $8.33 per bet.

Getting an edge of 8.33% when you’re gambling is huge, by the way. You can’t get an edge like that even if you’re counting cards professionally (unless you’re also doing things like shuffle tracking, edge sorting, and/or hole carding, but that’s an entirely different blog post.)

What Kind of Parlay Cards Can You Make?

So far, the only examples I’ve used have been for bets on who’s going to win a football game. Parlay cards aren’t limited to the most basic bets, though. You can also place any of the following parlays at various sportsbooks:

1. Moneyline
2. Over/under
3. Pleasers
4. Point spread
5. Teasers

A moneyline bet is one that doesn’t account for the point spread. You bet on who’s going to win, regardless of the strength of the teams. The payouts for bets on the favorite in a moneyline bet are smaller—sometimes MUCH smaller.

But if you can find an underdog or 2 that are going to pull off an upset, you can get a big payout on a parlay made up of moneyline bets.

An over/under bet is a bet on the total points scored in a game. The over/under is set by the handicappers at the sportsbooks, who project the final scores of each game. To get the total, you just add the scores for both teams together.

If the handicappers expect a high scoring game, the over/under will be a higher number than if they expect a low scoring game. Theoretically, the over/under number is set in such a way to give you a 50/50 probability of winning.

Combining multiple bets on the over/under can be a fun way to place a parlay bet.

A pleaser is a point spread bet where you’re given the opportunity to move the point spread to make it more likely that the book will win. You get a higher payout if you win, though.

A point spread bet is a bet on who’s going to win the game, but the strength of the teams are accounted for by giving the underdog points. This is the most common way to place a football bet, and if you’re making a single wager, you get an even money payout.

The point spread is set (theoretically) so that you get a 50/50 probability of winning.

A teaser is like a pleaser, only instead of moving the point spread to favor the book, you get to move the point spread to favor you. You get a lower payout if you win, though.

Teasers and pleasers are also available for over/under bets.

How to Make and Print Your Own Parlay Cards

You can find various websites where you can create your own parlay cards and print them. It would be best to print them on cardstock if you go this route.

Some of these sites even offer you parlay cards that already have all the numbers on them, but you can also choose to create your own numbers with their software.

Parlay Card Excel Template

ParlayCardsNow.com is one site which offers either option. You just input how you want the header to read, the name and date you want printed on the card, and your organization’s logo.

Then you have multiple lines where you can input the favorite and the underdog for each game in the parlay. You can also include the line (the point spread) and the over/under. Finally, you would include a section for the rules of the parlay and the payouts for the winners.

The parlay cards come out as PDF’s when you use the software on this site to create your parlay cards. They suggest that you uncheck the box that reads “fit to printable area,” as different printers have different parameters.

For their standard cards, this site uses Vegas odds, and the payoffs are as follows:

Parlay Cards

Of course, websites like this are in business to make money. They charge fees to access these cards, which can be bought on a weekly, 4-week, or season basis for $20, $60, or $140, respectively.

Another option would be to just find someone who has a little knowledge of how to create printable forms in Excel and have them design printable parlay cards for you. You’d probably need to give them an example to work from, but it wouldn’t be hard for them to create something you could use and re-use.

You’d be responsible for finding the point spreads for the games on the parlay card, though. This might be more trouble than you want to go to, but if you’re doing a lot of business taking action on parlays—maybe you’re getting your own bookmaking operation going—it’s probably worth the investment.

Conclusion

A parlay bet is one of the most entertaining bets a sports bettor can make, so if you’re running a bookmaking operation—even on a small basis—it’s probably worth offering these. It’s a combination bet that only pays off if the bettors gets all the bets in the combination right.

If you’re an individual sports bettor, you don’t have to worry about printing your parlay cards. The bookie you’re doing business with should be able to provide you with them. The trick is to beat the odds and win the payout.

The easiest way to make parlay cards is to use a subscription-based site that offers such functionality. Failing that, you just need to find a spreadsheet guru who can create fillable forms for you to use.