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This is when you bet on a horse that has lost his last race but previously won races. All you have to do is check the history and the rankings of the horse. This is still a strong horse with notable wins therefore it is still a viable and top contender in the race. Take the whole win and place it as a bet on roulette. Choose a type of bet that secures you the desired sum of money if you win. Take the whole win and play one spin with a big bet. If you win, go back the point 6 (double up until satisfied). In order to make money betting football and basketball, bettors must win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice) in order to break even. However, if MLB bettors avoid big favorites and consistently take plus-money underdogs (+120, +150, +170) they can win at a sub-50% clip but still finish the year with positive units won.
Betting on the NFL isn’t necessarily easy, but making smarter bets is always possible for those motivated to learn a bit of new strategy.
Try these nine thoughtful tips when wagering at online football betting sites and watch your bankroll grow.
1. Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart
It may sound obvious, but avoiding emotion when wagering remains a challenge for many bettors. We all have our personal biases. Whether it’s a favorite team or one we despise, putting aside these preferences isn’t easy.
But here’s the thing: becoming more objective towards NFL betting online is literally the easiest way to make smarter bets. It doesn’t require a detailed strategy on mathematical analysis, it just requires common sense.
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Cheering on your favorite team (at least) 16 times per year is a lot of fun, but losing money in the process is not. To become a smarter bettor, be aware of your biases and try to avoid decisions based solely on favoritism.
2. Pay Attention to Where the Game Is Played
Home-field advantage matters, and it matters more at certain stadiums. For example, the New England Patriots, went 42-6 straight-up (32-14-2 ATS) at home from 2014-2018. The Seahawks also perform exceptionally well in Seattle: they are 92-31 at home since 2003.
But they’re not the only two teams with such an advantage. Do your research by comparing each team’s home vs. away record when handicapping for home team advantage.
West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they’re used to.
There are also teams who don’t travel well. From 2014-2018 (a five-season span), the San Francisco 49ers were a terrible 9-31 on the road, third-worst in the league. They weren’t much better against the spread, going 16-22-2 (fourth-worst in the NFL). The Texans also struggled to cover the spread on the road in 2016, posting a 2-6 record ATS.
Knowing where and when the teams played the previous week is also an important factor to consider. Some teams suffer from real disadvantages. West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they’re used to.
Lastly, certain dome (indoor) teams can struggle to perform outdoors. For example, Drew Brees’ passer rating drops from 102.5 in a dome to 90.3 when playing outdoors. And this is all extremely useful information for bettors.
3. Know the Individual Matchups
Football is often referred to as the ultimate team sport, but there are certain one-on-one matchups that can dramatically affect the outcome of a game.
For example, a weak offensive tackle should not be expected to perform well against the premier edge-rushers in the league. Pay attention to major skill discrepancies between players who will be going head-to-head.
Coaches are perhaps the most significant head-to-head matchups that bettors should consider. Every coach uses recurring strategies that fare very well against some opponents and flop against others. Coaches get to know each other’s approaches to the game, and some are better at responding to these strategic considerations.
A great example of this is Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick. The Patriots have been dominant since Belichick has been steering the ship, but he was 2-5 when coaching against Coughlin following the 2018 season.
4. Know More than Just the Trends
When it comes to betting on NFL games, following the trends isn’t a bad idea — patterns sometimes provide valuable information. For example, from 2010 to 2018, the Bears went 12-5 ATS when coming off a bye week, while the 49ers, on the other hand, were just 5-11 ATS in that same time frame.
The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers when evaluating statistical trends.
Noticing that a team just scored 49 points the previous week doesn’t necessarily mean that their offense is firing on all cylinders. Go back and look at how all the points were scored. Maybe a defensive back fell down to allow a long touchdown pass. Perhaps the defense scored a couple of those touchdowns. Maybe they were just playing the Browns.
The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers.
5. Check the Injury Reports
As we mentioned, football is the ultimate team game, and small changes can throw off the entire unit. Make sure you know which players have missed practice during the week, what their status is for the upcoming game, and what role they play on the team.
Team injury reports can be a little vague, so it’s always a good idea to check the Twitter accounts of beat-writers for each team. Often, they will provide a little more detail.
6. Take Caution with Divisional Matchups
Teams that play each other twice per season get to know each other very well, and even bad teams tend to dig a little deeper when they are battling a division rival.
Looking to 2016, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers were three of the bottom-four teams in the NFL, but they all posted a 4-2 record ATS within their respective divisions.
Even though one team may appear superior on paper, divisional matchups are often much closer than anticipated. This makes the great choices to bet on the NFL point spread, but they can be risky choices on the moneyline.
7. Don’t Fall in Love with Value
Betting the underdog on the moneyline can certainly pay off, but you need to consider why long odds are so long in the first place. Make sure you have very specific reasons and logic behind taking a +800 underdog on the moneyline, because you can be sure the sportsbook used reason and logic to set that moneyline in the first place.
We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events when betting on the NFL.
You also need to be careful when constructing parlays and teasers. Don’t load them up with too many events. NFL teams are generally closely-matched compared to other sports, and it’s far too difficult to correctly predict the outcome of more than a handful of games. We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events.
8. Monitor the Lines Throughout the Week
Monitoring the betting lines throughout the week is a big part of maximizing your chances. Some online books may provide more favorable NFL odds, and as the week progresses, you may find the odds change.
It’s important to keep in mind the influence of public perception here. Popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and New England Patriots will always have loyal supporters betting with their hearts. They’re often referred to as public teams, and it’s very likely they’ll be more heavily favored than the statistics suggest they should be.
If you’re planning on betting against the public, wait around and let emotional bettors drive the odds in your favor. Conversely, if you’re planning to bet on a public team, jumping on an early line is likely the best decision.
9. Diversify Your NFL Bets
There is success to be had betting on the moneyline, the spread, and game totals. But to maximize your success, it’s crucial to know all the alternative bets you can make.
Many sportsbooks will allow you to bet on alternate spreads or buy and sell points. Instead of settling for a -3.5 spread that makes you a little uncomfortable, you can opt for a -2.5 spread with a more modest payout.
Enjoy the Action this NFL Season
The strategies above are great to keep in mind while wagering this football season, but they’re only a start. In the end, finding success is all about putting in the time and effort to research your pick and manage your bankroll effectively.
If you’re looking to for more football action than the NFL can provide, open up your Saturdays and take a look at our intro to betting on college football for more helpful tips and tricks.
Roulette is one of the most popular table games in modern casinos. Although variations on the game have been around for several hundred years, there are now only 3 variations in American casinos.
You’re likely already familiar with American roulette and European roulette. The most recent addition to the table game inventory is Sands Roulette.
Which of these games should you play?
How should you bet on them?
What’s the smartest strategy for roulette betting?
I’ll explain all that in this post:
What Are the Differences between American, European, and Sands Roulette?
Although these games have a few other differences, the most significant distinction between the 3 versions of roulette are the number of green slots the wheels contain.
Every roulette wheel has at least 37 slots.
36 of those slots are always numbered 1 to 36, and they’re alternately colored RED or BLACK.
The additional slots are green.
In European roulette there is only one green slot, the “0”.
In American roulette there are two green slots: “0” and “00”.
In Sands roulette a third green slot, “S”, has been added to the wheel.
The green slots are there for one reason:
They make the game’s statistical probabilities uneven.
This is because of the way roulette bets are paid off. You can win anywhere from 35-to-1 (for betting on a single number) down to 1-to-1 (for betting on 18 slots at a time).
The payoffs, called “odds”, are not as fair to you as the actual estimated probabilities of the roulette ball landing on any given slot. This is how the casino makes its money.
In a game of roulette the house should keep at least 2.70% of all the bets players make over time. The casino has no need to cheat the players. In fact, the players often make really bad bets that improve the “house edge”, as that casino profit is called.
One of the other differences between European roulette and both American and Sands roulette is that the European roulette table has an additional betting area. This secondary betting area is used to place specially designed bets. They are more complicated than the normal bets made in American and Sands roulette. I’m going to ignore this section of the table, because I’m going to show you how to place bets that have the best chances of paying off.
Is There a Winning System for Roulette?
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Everyone who gets into roulette sooner or later starts to think about how they can “beat the system”.
I’m going to be honest here:
There is no way to do that.
The green slots on the wheel make it impossible for anyone, anywhere, to ever design a betting system that is guaranteed to win. If you really want to guarantee yourself a win every time, then put a chip on each of the 2-to-1 outside bets and on each of the green number bets.
That’s the only way you’ll be paid money every time the wheel spins.
You’ll also go broke.
You may have heard about a system called the Martingale System. It’s a popular betting system with new roulette players.
Experienced roulette players just turn their heads and roll their eyes when someone mentions the Martingale System. The only way you can make money with the Martingale System is to write a book about it and get people to buy your book.
Even that’s a gamble, though, because most people now know that the Martingale System promises more than it delivers.
Here’s how this system works:
You start out betting the minimum. If you lose, you double your bet. If you win on your doubled bet, you go back to betting the table minimum. If you lose again, you double the size of your bet again.
This sounds great to inexperienced bettors but the problem is that you’ll either run out of money or hit the table limit before you can recoup your losses as they add up.
The Martingale System is a sucker bet, plain and simple.
Every betting system in every form of gambling tries to leverage probability theory. The Martingale System and other roulette betting strategies also rely on probability estimates.
But there’s a flaw in the thinking behind these systems. If you account for the flaw you’ll be okay. You won’t always win but your expectations will be more reasonable.
The secret to not going broke when you gamble is to set reasonable expectations and maintain your self-discipline. You should never drink or take drugs when you gamble. They lower your inhibitions and impair your judgment.
You might as well just hand your money over to the casino at the cashier window and say “keep it” if you’re going to drink or do drugs when you gamble.
How Do Probabilities Work in Roulette?
Probability theory came out of statistics. It tries to give us rules by which to guess what happens next in any situation. The guesses are seldom accurate predictions. Sometimes the guesses work out, and sometimes they don’t. Gamblers love probability theory because they think it helps them pick the best betting strategies.
You’re actually more likely to double your money during a roulette session if you put all your money on a single bet. The more bets you place, the less likely it becomes to double your money.
That’s because every bet brings you close to the long term expectations. The closer you are to the short term, the more likely you are to get better than expected results.
In roulette, the probabilities are simple. The dealer spins the wheel and releases a ball that whirls around the outside of the wheel and finally settles in a slot. With only 37 slots on a European roulette wheel you have a 1-in-37 probability of the ball landing on a specific slot.
This probability never changes.
This probability is calculated on the basis of all the known possibilities.
What probability theory cannot do, however, is predict where the ball will stop.
Nor can it predict whether the ball will land on red, black, or green any number of times over the next 100 spins.
Nonetheless, a lot of gambling guides tell you that you have the best chances of winning if you do this because of such-and-such probabilities. And many of these guides warn you that there is no way to predict the future, but by setting the expectation that the ball will land on red about 47% of the time, these guides are making predictions and promises they cannot keep.
They’ll even back up their claims by talking about how to run computer simulations for 1 million spins of the wheel so that you see how often the ball lands on red, black, or green.
In the real world the Probability Fairy is always on vacation. She’ll never be there to wave her magic wand to make things happen the way experts say they should. The ball could land on red over the next 20 spins. Or it could land on black or green or some random mix of color combinations.
You have no way of knowing how many of the next [X] spins will turn out a certain way. Talking about probabilities in this way is just dishonest.
What you can do is look at the wheel and ask yourself how much it costs to bet on the largest possible set of numbers. The idea here is to get as much coverage as you can without losing money too fast.
But even if you cover every number on the wheel you’ll lose money.
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So the only way to win in roulette–and this is completely random, never guaranteed–is to bet on less than all the numbers on the wheel.
You also want to play bets that pay better than even money. You can place a variety of bets, but most of them aren’t worthwhile.
Betting on single numbers is a bad idea. You can place bets on the lines between the numbers (these are called “street bets”) and on lines at the corners of numbers (these are called “corner bets”).
But even though you get pretty good odds (payoff) you’re still covering too few numbers.
How Bets Work in Roulette
Divide the bets into two groups:
- Inside bets
- Outside bets
Inside bets are based on individual numbers or small groups of numbers. When you see players betting on the lines, corners, and individual numbers on the table they are making inside bets.
Outside bets are based on pre-selected groups of numbers on the wheel. The “2-to-1” bets cover 12 numbers each: 1 to 12, 13 to 24, and 25 to 36. The “1-to-1” or “even money” bets cover 18 numbers each:
- Odd
- Even
- Black
- Red
- 1 to 18
- 19 to 36
The bets more likely to pay are the even money bets.
But unless you can win 5 times out of 9 on even money bets you’ll lose your stake. That’s the problem with roulette. You always have to win at least 1 more time than you lose no matter how you place your bets.
The “2 to 1” bets pay better than the “1 to 1” bets because they cover fewer numbers. You have less of a chance of winning.
There are 6 types of “2 to 1” bets:
- 3 kinds of dozens bets: (1 to 12, 13 to 24, and 25 to 36)
- 3 kinds of columns bets: ([1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, 34], [2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29, 32, 35], [3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30, 33, 36]).
You can make a bet by betting on any two of the “2 to 1” groups. That means that instead of covering only 18 numbers you’ll be covering 24 numbers.
This type of bet is often called the “double dozen” bet. It’s popular among gamblers who like to hedge their bets. They have a better chance (all other things considered) of scoring a win with a “double dozen” than with one of the standard even money bets. If you’re playing it safe and going for even money odds, you should always play a double dozen bet.
If you want to bet more aggressively, then instead of betting more money on your double dozen, you can cover all 36 of the red and black numbers. Leave the green numbers alone. Yes, they’ll come in every now and then, and you’ll lose money.
But there’s a way to keep your losses low.
How to Bet on Columns or Dozens Aggressively
Take 6 chips and distribute them across EITHER the three dozen bets or the three column bets.
Place 3 chips on 1, 2 chips on the 2nd, and 1 chip on the 3rd. If the ball lands on a green number you’ll lose your entire bet, so always play the table minimum with this aggressive style.
If the ball lands on any number with your single chip bet, you’ll win 2 chips and lose 5–for a net loss of 3 chips (half your bet).
That’s the safest way to bet aggressively on the table.
If the ball lands on any number in your 2 chip bet you’ll win 4 chips and lose 4 for no loss. This keeps you in the game.
If the ball lands on any number in your 3chip bet, you’ll win 6 chips and lose 3 for a net gain of 3 chips. This will offset 1 single chip win.
The way this betting strategy works out, your money can grow substantially and still take some big hits. Where the strategy will fail you is when the ball lands on green or if the ball lands on the single chip bet more often than it lands on the 3 chip bet.
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Sorry, but there’s no way to prevent that from happening.
There Is No Guaranteed Way to Win in Roulette
I can’t say this often enough:
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You can’t win at roulette in the long run.
I think roulette is a fun game to play. It’s exciting because you don’t know where the ball will land. You take an active role in making your wagers.
And you’ll find there are a lot of different betting systems to experiment with. The only thing that is guaranteed in roulette is that the casino will make a profit. What you hope for is that they make their profit at someone else’s expense.
Players who try to improve their luck by making big bets do sometimes win, but most often the people who come out ahead are the patient players who use conservative betting strategies and take money off the table. If you only walk away with your beginning stake you’ll be luckier than most gamblers.
And you can take that to the bank.